Will the Cole Hamels’ next start in Chicago be for or against the Phillies?
Every year, whether it be at the GM Winter Meetings or the Non-Waiver Trade Deadline, there’s always that one big name that holds up the rest of the market. This summer is no different and it very well could be Cole Hamels that has become “that guy“. Sure there are sexier names like David Price and Johnny Cueto available, but ultimately they are bigger overpays. First of all, they are rentals. Outside of the Cubs trading for Price, I highly doubt either pitcher will start 2016 with the team they end 2015 with. Second of all, they would be no doubt about it Qualifying Offer candidates, meaning that if they were to stay with their current team and no sign a one-year tender and sign with another team, the current team would be entitled to draft pick compensation in next year’s draft. That being said, the Reds and Tigers are going to be looking for a package that includes additional compensation for losing that draft pick.
The next tier includes guys like Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, and Jeff Samardzija. None are a bad pitcher, but none are tried and tested aces. In fact, not even Price or Cueto have the playoff pedigree that Hamels has. Do I doubt that many teams look to the second tier guys for depth? Any team in the playoff hunt would be crazy not to. Any of these pitchers could easily be an upgrade over what a team currently has, but are any of them worthy of being that go to guy in a one game playoff? They’d definitely keep you in the game, but probably won’t win it for you like Hamels can.
So let’s be honest, there are probably some sleeper teams out there looking at the long-term that don’t get discussed in the “Hamels Sweepstakes”, but the ones most discussed about are the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Rangers, and Orioles. Right off the top, I’d cross off the Orioles just based on the fact that they don’t have much to offer in return. Sure teams like the Pirates, Astros, and Blue Jays have kicked the tires on Hamels, but that seems to be just due diligence. I could be dead wrong, but I highly doubt he ends up in any of those uniforms. I’d probably cross off the Dodgers as well. They have two things going against them. One is that they appear to be trying to pull the “I’m gonna low-ball you an offer just because I’m willing to eat all the remaining contract” card. The other is that, in my opinion, no team is going to trade you a top 30 ranked prospect in all of baseball. So that probably means no Seager and no Urias. Which I’m okay with. Both are great and I wouldn’t say no to either one, but I’m excited with what the Phillies have in those positions.
While in the off-season, my main destination was clearly the Red Sox, my in season target has been slowly drifting towards the Chicago Cubs. With Miguel Montero’s recent injury, I don’t know what the availability of Kyle Schwarber would be, but he’d be my center piece around Mark Zagunis and Billy McKinney. The deal may have to expand due to Chicago’s need behind the dish (Carlos Ruiz anyone?) or involve a third team. Either way, the Phillies need to get this one right.
What if the Phillies don’t end up moving Hamels? Well, simply put, they’d have an increasingly hard time moving him before next July 31st to gain a proper value. With Cueto and Price basically guaranteed to be moved, they’d be the prizes of the offseason with guys like Jordan Zimmermann and Zack Greinke not falling too far behind. Yeah all of those guys, would cost a lot of years and money, but that’s all they would cost. Not a large contract AND prospects to boot. So at best, Hamels would be the 5th most desirable pitcher this winter.
Tags: Baltimore Orioles, Billy McKinney, Boston Red Sox, chicago cubs, Cincinatti Reds, Cole Hamels, David Price, detroit tigers, Johnny Cueto, Kyle Schwarber, los angeles dodgers, Mark Zagunis, Philadelphia Sports News, Phillies Rumors
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