As Spring Training begins to wind down, and players start to really prepare for the year ahead, the Phillies still have one glaring question. Who will be this year’s 5th starter? The competition has come down to Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick, the old veteran versus the up and coming young sinker-baller. Fans all over Phillies nation are pulling for Kendrick and they believe he has already earned his spot for the most part. I have quite a different opinion on the subject.
First off, I really am curious where the infatuation with Kyle Kendrick came from. Just last year many were writing him off as a career minor-league pitcher who lacks the stuff to get big league hitters out on a consistent basis. Fast-forward through a couple of goose eggs KK put up after September call-ups and a well-pitched Spring Training and now Kendrick is a savior. The fact of the matter is, Kendrick is still very much a question mark. Talk about a fickle fan base.
Secondly, Jamie Moyer did struggle pretty severely during the beginning of the season and those struggles were so bad early on that they really put a hurting on his overall numbers for the season. Since May 20th last season, Moyer’s ERA was a very respectable 4.05. It is unlikely that Kendrick could match that type of production over a full season at this point in his young career. Moyer is the type of pitcher, where to the casual fan, it is almost impossible to tell when he is actually “done”. His production does not rely on eye-popping readings on a radar gun, but on location and savvy. In 2007 it looked like the end for Moyer, after he posted a 5.01 ERA (slightly worse than last year), only to bounce back in 2008 with a 3.71 ERA with 16 wins. I would not be surprised at all to see a similar season but with an ERA somewhere in the mid 4’s.
Lastly and possibly most importantly, Jamie Moyer serves almost no purpose in the bullpen. Many will point to Moyer’s numbers last year out of the pen and use that as evidence that he can succeed there, but what many fail to realize is that Moyer pitched in 4 extended appearances where Pedro Martinez had starts rained out. This is unlikely to happen again and is not very efficient to waste a roster and bullpen spot on a pitcher who can only throw in long relief. Moyer has also stated he cannot pitch on back to back days, which is critical for a bullpen arm. Moyer is not the type of pitcher who can be used as a lefty-specialist and is not a late-inning arm.
In conclusion, I think a lot of fans are overrating Kyle Kendrick and underrating Jamie Moyer. The truth is over a full season these two will probably put up pretty similar numbers throughout the year in the rotation, but the Phillies roster and team is in much better shape with Kyle Kendrick in the bullpen rather than Jamie Moyer. Let Moyer show what he can do and give him a chance to succeed because one thing you can’t do is count Jamie Moyer out. Just when you think he’s finished, he will surprise you.
Who do you think should win the 5th spot in the rotation?
Tags: Jamie Moyer, Johnny G, kyle kendrick, Phillies
You certainly have some agreeable opinions and views. Your blog provides a fresh look at the subject.
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Very informative post. Thanks for taking the time to share your view with us.
Guys, if you wanna get juiced for the Phillies season, minus the Lee trade and Blanton injury. Pickup the Sports Illustrated with Halladay on the cover. Not that it really means anything, but they predict the Phils over the Rays this year.
Well looks like the Moyer – Kendrick competition is a mute point as of Opening Day! With the Blanton DL news (I pray it’s not an omen for a promising 2010)Moyer will most likely be bumped to #4 and Kendrick will be your #5 for a while. What I am curious about is if this sends a red flag or signal to management. After trading away Lee for slop, they MUST now go out and get another starter during the course of the season. I don’t want to be negative, BUT we are one more starters injury away from complete disaster! I really wonder if a call has been made to Pedro’s agent yet? Seriously we may have my personal favorite back the “Old Goat!”
Moyer is best suited for the 5th spot. It really has to be there or NOWHERE. Kendrick had a great Spring like Moyer but on this years squad he seems a better fit in the Pen. As he develops his 3rd pitch I am sure he will be a starter. In fact I am confident he will get some spot starts in these crazy ass long seasons! Anyway let’s send Moyer to retirement with 15 wins while Yanking back our title! YEAH!
agreed. Where’s your newest article? Been lookin forward to reading something from your perspective.
Now that CK has the site running smooth again, something’s coming tommorow, hope you are well… lokking forward to opening day!
Now that CK has the site running smooth again, something’s coming tommorow, hope you are well… look
ing forward to opening day!
Schmitty– I heard them talking about McNabb going to the Rams, but then they brought on a writer from Saint Louis who said the Rams love Sam Bradford and won’t sign McNabb. He crushed my dreams!
Some bold season predictions while I smoke some oregano! Here goes: 105 regular season victories(franchise record). 25 wins for Halladay, 18 wins for Happ,15 for Cole and Blanton. Bullpen rebounds to lead NL in era. Offense sets a franchise record in on base percentage, runs, homers and steals. This includes Rollins and Victorina each stealing 35 plus bases with Utley and Werth 25 a piece. Howard stands closer to the plate and hits 280. Werth tops 40 dingers. Ruiz hits 275 and no starting player bats below that! We win East by 10 games, breeze through divisional playoffs. Takes 6 games to beat a more seasoned Dodger team, then……….to be con’t.
Love the optimism Schmitty! Hey did you hear A-roid is suspected of more steroid use? What a schocker!
Aroid…I better take a xanax! Call 911 I am in more disbelief. Is it true McNabb maybe finallly headed out of town to the Rams! I see SAheldon Brown rolling.
I agree Schmitty at least 100 wins for team and Halladay at least 25 just with this offense and his domination of the NL because of not havingto face a DH everrytime out.
sounds reasonable
people go by, \what have you done for me lately?\ and kendrick was good down the stretch last yr. same reason people are more critical of hamels despite being only two years removed from world series MVP
I think alot of us remember how well Kendrick filled in for Happ after his late season injury. Not the back and forth Kendrick beforehand. Sucks to have not seen Happ in his starters role in the WS. Who the hell know’s? Maybe there is something to be said for old age. Look at how the Phils wasted a gem from the “old goat” in game 2 of the WS at New York a game to steal. Anyway…
Interesting take John. I guess people are hoping Kendrick will blossom into a quality pitcher. But from what I’ve seen of him, I think I could hit the guy. Moyer is not the greatest option either. I wonder who Manuel will go with… Happ would have been a terrific #5, but I don’t want to open the whole Cliff Lee staying here can of worms again…
i like contreras but he doesnt seem to be an option at this point for some reason. It just seems to me like the kendrick support has just snowballed where everyone thinks he is a stud now and i dont know why.
I agree. He has to do some serious pitching to inspire confidence in me. I’d be terrified with him pitching in an important game.
I would love as Contreras as your #5,but Park walked for less money (idiot) and there goes that option unless we find a bullpen dude through a trade.
I know it is tempting to say what if? A #5 starter with 15 wins in Happ!
That is still a tough can of worms for me to let go, could you imagine?! I WILL give Ruben slack today because I am in a good mood. So far he has pulled all the right moves after they played out. Who knows, maybe Lee will blow out his arm in May and Kendrick and Moyer combine for 15 wins. I STILL have a hunch the Phillies will pull off some kind of move early, BUT most likely a mid season trade, once they do indeed realize they really messed up with giving Lee away and Cole is in fact a space cadet.
I say who really cares who is “defined” as the 5th starter. One is a young righty while the other is an older lefty. I think they may end up splitting duties and end up with similar innings pitched. UNLESS one just blows the doors off! Let’s just get to April 5th healthy!