Posts Tagged ‘Michael Haftman’

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The Only Choice

May 27th, 2016 by Mike H. | Comments Off on The Only Choice | Filed in Baseball, MLB, Phillies

onlychoice

Recently, there’s been a lot of talk as to what to do with Ryan Howard. Some people say the Phillies should trade him. He has no value. Even if the Phillies paid every last cent owed to Howard AND took on a bad contract to offset the ten million dollars owed to Howard in the form of a buyout, all you’d be doing is taking on a similar headache and possibly a longer-term one. So that’s a no. Some people seem to think that Howard would do the honorable thing and just retire. Cue the Michael Jack Schmidt references. Would anyone in their right mind walk away from millions of dollars? Howard would be forfeiting roughly twenty-five million dollars or so. That’s an insane amount of money to walk away from. So that’s a no too. The best one I’ve heard is the just sit him on the bench. Yeah, that’s not opening a can of worms.

While sitting Howard would give more playing time to recent call up Tommy Joseph, it would also most likely cause the Player’s Association to file a grievance. Despite Howard having more than twice as many strike outs as hits this season, it will be an issue. They’ll likely point out that Howard is also being a productive player. The MLBPA will argue that Howard has just as many Home Runs and eight less Runs Batted In than teammate Maikel Franco in forty less at bats. There will be plenty of counter arguments that will play against the Phillies if they were to try to just sit Howard. So that’s a no go.

The only choice? Release Howard. Pay him the remainder of this season. Pay him his buy out. Hell, maybe you’ll get lucky and someone will pick him up for the league minimum and allow the Phillies to recoup the money to pay a minor leaguer to play ball in South Philly. What’s even more valuable is the roster spot that Howard is clogging up. No, I don’t think he’s blocking Joseph or anyone else from debuting and sending the Phillies to the next level, but just having the flexibility to put someone there is paramount. Eventually, Cody Asche is gonna need a spot unless he gets optioned to AAA Lehigh Valley. Being able to bring someone off the disabled list without making a move makes life so much easier.

Just release him. Get it over with. I keep hearing how the like having Howard around because of his club house presence. You know what you call someone who can’t play the game anymore at the highest level and inspires team mates to perform? A coach. We have plenty of them. The players will get over Howard not showing up. That’s what players do. It’s a business, not the Boy Scouts.

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The “All In” Mentality

May 24th, 2016 by Mike H. | Comments Off on The “All In” Mentality | Filed in Baseball, MLB, Phillies

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After Monday’s 5-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers, the Phillies sit at 25-20, good for third in the division, but just 2.5 games out of first place. As each day passes and hope gets brighter, I keep getting reminded of how impatient this town and its fan can get. More and more I hear that the Phillies should acquire a bat in order to “go all in”, “make a run”, or the ever clichéd “catch lightning in a bottle”. I don’t want to seem like a Debbie Downer, but Christ, can we be more naive? Everybody wants to believe that this team is a move or two away from the World Series. I couldn’t disagree more. If the Phillies want to be a perennial power house, GM Matt Klentak needs to stay the course and let the team evolve naturally.

The Phillies success is not sustainable. The young pitching has been outstanding, or has it? The Phillies pitching staff is tied for seventh best Batting Average on Ball In Play (BABIP). For those who aren’t familiar, that means opposing teams have been “unlucky” facing Phillies pitching. Basically, opposing teams are hitting balls, for the most part, right at the Phillies defensively. There is a lot promising talent on the team right now, but not sustainable enough to be a playoff contender…..yet. The offense on the other hand, while better as of late, has been fairly horrible. The Phillies have the 7th worst run differential in MLB. Only two other MLB teams have a winning record and a negative run differential: The Miami Marlins (23-21, -10) and the Kansas City Royals (22-21, -13)  The Phillies, on the other hand, have a run differential of -32. Almost three times worse than teams fighting to stay above .500.

Enter the “Get a bat” conversation. This, in my humble opinion, is one of the worst ideas you could conceive. Let’s start with who are you going to acquire. Is there a player that can significantly increase the Phillies offense without strip mining the farm? For a while, there were rumors wondering if the Angels should considering trading Mike Trout. Sure he’d be an instant favorite, and not even because he’s the local product, but that would require more long-term talent than what its worth considering salary you’d have to commit as well.

A better idea is to let the farm produce a bat. I mean there are some legitimate prospects that could be long-term solutions. At AAA Lehigh Valley alone, Cameron Perkins is hitting a solid .304 albeit with an unimpressive .327 on-base percentage. Nick Williams has struggled recently, but has the tools to succeed. The Phillies top position prospect, J.P. Crawford, was just recently promoted, but most likely isn’t anything more than a September call up short of a series of catastrophic injuries. At AA Reading, Jorge Alfaro is looking like the real deal hitting .355 with a .371 on-base percentage. Alfaro could definitely be helpful to the offense, but a promotion to AAA should be first. It would be no surprise to see him get promoted after the Eastern League All Star Game. Outfielder Dylan Cozens is showing promise. While hitting a rather pedestrian .276, he does have a .348 on-base percentage and .558 slugging percentage with 11 home runs.

So the Phillies do have options to bring up and potentially be long-term solutions, but none of which are currently ready to make the impact that the team would need to be “All In”. At least not in 2016. The Phillies are returning from baseball obscurity and moving any pieces right now would just be foolish. With all the money the Phillies will be gaining with the new TV contract, the top draft picks, and top international signing bonus pool, the future of the franchise is about to become the present.

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Following The 40: Phillies Acquire Hellickson

November 15th, 2015 by Mike H. | Comments Off on Following The 40: Phillies Acquire Hellickson | Filed in Baseball, MLB, Phillies
Jeremy Hellickson: Opening Day Starter?

Jeremy Hellickson: Opening Day Starter?

The Phillies made their first meaningful acquisition of the offseason. The Phillies have traded 8th round 2014 draft pick Sam McWilliams to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson is entering his final year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Estimates have been around $6.6M in salary for 2016, a very reasonable number for an innings eater that the Phillies need with all the young arms that could potentially use. The hope is that Hellickson can put up good enough numbers to get to through July and the Phillies can flip him mid-season to a contender for some much-needed quality prospects. The Phillies gave up little as far as the return to Arizona goes. McWilliams is basically the definition of a lottery pick prospect having spent the last two seasons in the Gulf Coast League.

The deal is a no-brainer for the Phillies as they gave up something inconsequential in return in their eyes for a potentially tradeable innings eater in Hellickson. Looking at it in November, things can go one of a couple of different ways. Hellickson pitches exceptionally well and is traded for a long-term piece (or pieces) at the end of July. Hellickson pitches as he basically has over the last couple of seasons and gives the Phillies 150-175 innings to save some of the younger arms. One thing that is sure, the Phillies most likely have zero chance at signing a short-term deal with Hellickson due to him being a Scott Boras client. 2016 is looking to be just a pit stop for Hellickson, but depending on how well he pitches will determine how short the stay is.

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Following The 40: Starting Rotation

November 8th, 2015 by Mike H. | Comments Off on Following The 40: Starting Rotation | Filed in Baseball, General, MLB, Phillies

phillies40In recent years, Hollywood has been all about the reboot. In 2015 alone, we saw both ends of the spectrum of how rebooting can go. Jurassic World acknowledged the original Jurassic Park, but basically disavowed all information that happened in the increasing lesser sequels. Then there was Fantastic Four, a desperate attempt to retain a franchise that needed to move on that just came off as … well, desperate. As you’re reading this, I can see a good majority of people saying, “How in the hell does this relate to the Phillies?” It has everything to do with them, and as the Phillies start to reboot the franchise, I’m gonna go step-by-step through the roster and give my thoughts on how they can end up the summer blockbuster we’re all lining up to see.

Speaking of the Fantastic Four, that was the previous regime in a nut shell. After 2008, it was just one grasp at a straw after another. Failed attempts to keep a window open instead of finding a way to open a new one. That first step in finding a new window came with a slamming of a door, the one that closed when Ruben “Mr. Fantastic” Amaro was finally given his pink slip. New GM Matt Klentak still believes in building around pitching and while the Phillies have acquired some potential, they don’t have much in the way of certainty. As of right now, the only thing close to certainties in the Phillies rotation are 2014 1st round draft pick Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff, who was acquired from Texas in the Cole Hamels trade (sorry for the sore spot, Amy).

So what are the Phillies options? Well, Adam Morgan is working his way back and probably has one of the better shots to make the rotation. Alec Asher, David Buchanan, Severino Gonzalez, and Matt Harrison all will have shots at a spot as well. Asher, Buchanan, and Gonzalez appear to more likely start the season in AAA Lehigh Valley, but are definitely options. Harrison on the other hand, seems more likely to spend more time on the disabled list than on the active roster. Harrison is still trying to make the seemingly impossible comeback from spinal fusion surgery. A surgery that was given the prognosis of a 20% chance that he would ever pitch competitively again.

Recently, an article stated that the Phillies would definitely consider calling up top pitching prospect Jake Thompson, who was also acquired in the Texas deal. The article stated that the team would bring him up if they felt he deserved. Now while a lot of fans may see a great second half in AA Reading, there is no reason to rush him. Let him start the year in AAA and if he is just as successful, he’ll probably be up before the All-Star Break. Why any team would risk losing a year of team control on a potentially gifted player is ridiculous.

The Phillies also have the top pick in the Rule V draft at the end of the annual Winter Meetings, which is just over a month a way. The Phillies really lucked out last year with CF Odubel Herrera. Can the team repeat that success? Only time will tell and we here at TSP will be keeping track of all the possibilities as we get closer and other rumors and transactions that occur during the busiest week of the baseball offseason. While some of the key free agents that set the market come off the board that week, don’t expect to see the Phillies dive into the free agent deep end. I suspect more Jerome Williams and Aaron Harang-esque types of signings with the hopes of being able to flip them mid-season with guys like Thompson, Asher, Buchanan, and Gonzalez ready to step in.

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Following The 40: Prime Directives

November 6th, 2015 by Mike H. | Comments Off on Following The 40: Prime Directives | Filed in Baseball, General, MLB, Phillies

Team President Andy MacPhail, General Manager Matt Klentak, and John Middleton

As expected, the Phillies selected the successor to Ruben Amaro Jr.’s throne. It really seemed like a formality that Team President Andy MacPhail would choose Matt Klentak based off of previous work experience in Baltimore where he served as Director of Baseball Operations. During his introductory statement, Klentak laid forth a set of prime directives that the Phillies would abide by under his watch.

  • Discipline
  • Connectivity
  • Information
  • Culture
  • Winning

Just reading his quotes as to how he will lead this team going forward gives me a sense of hope. Granted a potentially strong base of prospects relatively close to the majors backed by an ownership group with rather deep pockets doesn’t hurt, but talking about discipline, which wasn’t one of his predecessor’s finest qualities, should also let the fans know not to expect the huge splash….yet. What Amaro never learned in his time as General Manager was a lesson he could have learned from Taylor Swift (yes that Taylor Swift). That band aids don’t fix bullet holes. Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence were both reactionary moves that set the franchise back. Both were meant to cover mistakes in getting rid of Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth, but the cost was detrimental in long-term decisions.

Connectivity and Information will work hand in hand as the team re-evaluates how the team is built going forward. The concept of synergy was not a point of strength since Pat Gillick rode off into the sunset, World Series trophy in hand. In fact, it really seemed like one hand didn’t know what the other hand was doing the majority of the time. I’m excited to see what this franchise can become with an analytic weaponry and the payroll to back it up.

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Following The 40: Off-season Primer

October 12th, 2015 by Mike H. | Comments Off on Following The 40: Off-season Primer | Filed in Baseball, General, MLB, Phillies

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As the Phillies off-season begins, the first order of business was to pair down the roster to 40 players including ones that would be coming off of injured status. Earlier last week, the Phillies outrighted Justin De Fratus (who recently elected free agency), Jonathan Pettibone, Adam Loewen, Ken Roberts, Erik Kratz, Jordan Danks, and Chase d’Arnaud. The roster currently stands at forty, but with a strong likelihood that Cliff Lee, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams, Brian Bogusevic, Jeff Francoeur, and Andres Blanco all head to free agency.

Francoeur and Blanco are expected to be asked to return, but will both certainly be given offers with other clubs. Domonic Brown may have seen his last inning as a Phillie as he has a very strong chance of being non-tendered a contract. Jesse Biddle and David Buchanan are both likely to be outrighted in the near future due to their respective injury statuses. That sets the Phillies at 30 players.

Whoever the next General Manager may be, while they have the resources, there probably won’t be any huge splashes for 2016. In fact, the Phillies acquisitions will most likely be role players and players coming off of injury looking to establish value. The rotation will most likely consist of Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Adam Morgan as pitchers three thru five with Alec Asher and Severino Gonzalez given opportunities.

Matt Harrison, whom the Phillies acquired at the trade deadline in the Cole Hamels deal, could also be an option if he is healthy enough to compete. The Phillies could also add from within with Zach Eflin and Ben Lively as potential candidates. My personal targets for the Phillies to add from free agency: Mat Latos or Doug Fister.

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Good Offers?

February 12th, 2015 by Mike H. | Comments Off on Good Offers? | Filed in Baseball, Phillies

One of my greatest pet peeves regarding Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has always been about timing. When there is time to wait and process as much information as possible, Amaro almost always seems to jump the gun. Remember the first Cliff Lee deal when we got Doc? Or how about the complete debacle of the Hunter Pence experiment? Not to be out done by himself, which is another problem he suffers from, when time is of the essence, Amaro comes off as ambivalent and nonchalant.

Amaro recently spoke with Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly and revealed that eight teams have contacted the Phillies in regards to the best possible trade chip, Cole Hamels. Of those eight, four teams have made “good offers”. What a “good offer” entails is subject to debate, but if you’ve received a good offer, why are you sitting on it? What is the difference between a good offer and a great offer? Is it simply that he’s fixated on Red Sox catching prospect Blake Swihart? Is the amount of subsidy he’s willing to offer keeping him from that great offer?

Look at it this way, if the Phillies are content to hold on to Hamels to the trade deadline, they are willing to pay roughly two-thirds of Hamels’ 2015 salary. That is roughly fifteen million dollars. If the Phillies are content with paying fifteen million dollars to Hamels, why aren’t they comfortable paying that amount, or slightly more, to a team now to increase the quality of the return AND spread that dollar amount of the remaining life of the contract. It just makes way too much sense to subsidize fifteen to twenty million dollars to help improve that return. It also makes way too much sense to allow Hamels to throw even one warm up toss in camp as any kind of injury is the difference between setting the franchise back further than it already has been.

Amaro has been on record saying that he needs a “win” in this situation. In my opinion, no matter how good the “win” is, it simply just does not outweigh the all the losses both on the field and off it.

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