After Monday’s 5-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers, the Phillies sit at 25-20, good for third in the division, but just 2.5 games out of first place. As each day passes and hope gets brighter, I keep getting reminded of how impatient this town and its fan can get. More and more I hear that the Phillies should acquire a bat in order to “go all in”, “make a run”, or the ever clichéd “catch lightning in a bottle”. I don’t want to seem like a Debbie Downer, but Christ, can we be more naive? Everybody wants to believe that this team is a move or two away from the World Series. I couldn’t disagree more. If the Phillies want to be a perennial power house, GM Matt Klentak needs to stay the course and let the team evolve naturally.
The Phillies success is not sustainable. The young pitching has been outstanding, or has it? The Phillies pitching staff is tied for seventh best Batting Average on Ball In Play (BABIP). For those who aren’t familiar, that means opposing teams have been “unlucky” facing Phillies pitching. Basically, opposing teams are hitting balls, for the most part, right at the Phillies defensively. There is a lot promising talent on the team right now, but not sustainable enough to be a playoff contender…..yet. The offense on the other hand, while better as of late, has been fairly horrible. The Phillies have the 7th worst run differential in MLB. Only two other MLB teams have a winning record and a negative run differential: The Miami Marlins (23-21, -10) and the Kansas City Royals (22-21, -13) The Phillies, on the other hand, have a run differential of -32. Almost three times worse than teams fighting to stay above .500.
Enter the “Get a bat” conversation. This, in my humble opinion, is one of the worst ideas you could conceive. Let’s start with who are you going to acquire. Is there a player that can significantly increase the Phillies offense without strip mining the farm? For a while, there were rumors wondering if the Angels should considering trading Mike Trout. Sure he’d be an instant favorite, and not even because he’s the local product, but that would require more long-term talent than what its worth considering salary you’d have to commit as well.
A better idea is to let the farm produce a bat. I mean there are some legitimate prospects that could be long-term solutions. At AAA Lehigh Valley alone, Cameron Perkins is hitting a solid .304 albeit with an unimpressive .327 on-base percentage. Nick Williams has struggled recently, but has the tools to succeed. The Phillies top position prospect, J.P. Crawford, was just recently promoted, but most likely isn’t anything more than a September call up short of a series of catastrophic injuries. At AA Reading, Jorge Alfaro is looking like the real deal hitting .355 with a .371 on-base percentage. Alfaro could definitely be helpful to the offense, but a promotion to AAA should be first. It would be no surprise to see him get promoted after the Eastern League All Star Game. Outfielder Dylan Cozens is showing promise. While hitting a rather pedestrian .276, he does have a .348 on-base percentage and .558 slugging percentage with 11 home runs.
So the Phillies do have options to bring up and potentially be long-term solutions, but none of which are currently ready to make the impact that the team would need to be “All In”. At least not in 2016. The Phillies are returning from baseball obscurity and moving any pieces right now would just be foolish. With all the money the Phillies will be gaining with the new TV contract, the top draft picks, and top international signing bonus pool, the future of the franchise is about to become the present.
Tags: Cameron Perkins, J.P. Crawford, Matt Klentak, Michael Haftman, MLB News, Phillies 2016, Phillies All-in, Phillies News, Phillies Rumors, Phillies TV Contract, Philly Sports News, Sports Talk Philly, TalkSportsPhilly
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