Posts Tagged ‘Baseball’

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Ryan Howard’s Not So Secret Enemy

March 4th, 2010 by Johnny G | 7 Comments | Filed in Baseball, General, Phillies

Ryan Howard struck out 13 times in the 6 game series.

If you noticed an alarming pattern during Ryan Howard’s at-bats in the 2009 World Series it was probably his .174 batting average and 13 strikeouts in the six game series. What is even more alarming though, is the strategy the Yankees used to isolate the Phillies best power threat. Throughout the six game series Ryan Howard saw 101 pitches. 40 of those were fastballs, 36 were sliders, 22 were curveballs, and 3 were cutters. That’s right, in a six game series Ryan Howard saw a fastball less than 40% of the time. That is absolutely unheard of when comparing pitch selection by pitchers in the MLB. Phillies fans could rest easily going forward if the trend stopped there, but thanks to phenomenal research by Tom Verducci and Stats inc., it has been proven that we have quite a bit to worry about.

Let’s start from the top. In the first six innings of a game, Ryan Howard is a .298 career hitter. Any Phillies fan would take that from the big man any day of the week, but after the first six innings that average drops to a very mediocre .237. There are a lot of fluky reasons this could occur if we were comparing a week, a month, or even a season of stats, but when comparing his whole career this is a real issue. Late in games managers have the option of using left-handed relief specialists who live and die by their breaking ball, which is obviously the reason for the substantial drop in production.

When comparing the amount of breaking balls Howard sees compared to the rest of the MLB it is not a competition. Last season over the course of 2009 Ryan Howard saw 1,127 breaking pitches and number 2 on this list was Dan Uggla at 930 breaking pitches. Howard now sees way more breaking balls than anyone else in the big leagues and its only getting worse. Each year the amount of breaking pitches has increased for Howard and so has the amount of at-bats he has against left-handers per season. The average left handed hitter faces a left handed pitcher in 18.5% of their plate appearances. Howard on the other hand faces lefties in a whopping 35.8% of his at-bats, most in the big leagues.

Here’s where the numbers start to get really alarming: Last year when facing a breaking ball, Howard either swung and missed or fouled the pitch off 73% of the time. 73% of the time against a breaking ball it was a strike against Howard. 27% of the time the ball was put in play and that doesn’t mean it was for a hit. You have to assume at least 15% of the balls put into play were recorded outs. That should give you an idea of how often he successfully reaches base against breaking balls. Finally, Howard saw 1,127 breaking balls last year and hit exactly 3 home-runs off of left-handed breaking balls. With those types of struggles it is amazing he puts up the final numbers he does season in and season out.

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Spring Training News and Notes

March 2nd, 2010 by Johnny G | 12 Comments | Filed in Baseball, General

Bright House Field

  • Victorino may not play in Spring Opener: Shane Victorino did not participate in throwing drills on Monday at Phillies camp because of a sore shoulder. Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel and the training staff did not expect it to be serious but were being extra cautious this early in camp. .”We didn’t want him throwing in our drills,” Manuel said. “We want him to take it easy a few days. He’ll be all right.” Victorino did participate in batting practice but his status for Wednesdays exhibition game against Florida St. is unknown
  • Romero and Lidge work their way back: J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge both threw off of a mound on Sunday and both reported they felt fine. “Still going slow, but it’s going in the right direction,” Lidge said. Lidge threw 35 pitches with “6 or 7” sliders mixed in. Romero threw only fastballs in his first session on a mound. “It went well,” Romero said. “I feel good and I’m very positive about it.”
  • Hamels working on cutter: As many fans have noticed, Cole Hamels has become a two-pitch pitcher. With only his fastball and change-up as legitimate pitches, his repertoire has become pretty predictable for fans and hitters alike. “It’s hard, but I’m willing to put in all the work to do it, because I understand the importance and significance behind having more pitches against big league hitters,” Hamels said. Whether Hamels will be comfortable enough with the cutter for this season remains to be seen, but tinkering with other pitchers can only be a positive for Cole.

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Johnny G’s 2010 MLB Power Rankings

February 17th, 2010 by Johnny G | 44 Comments | Filed in Baseball, General

2010 MLB Power Rankings

1. New York Yankees – Defending World Champs have not lost much besides Matsui and Damon. Added Granderson and Javier Vazquez. The Yankees are the front runners again this season. With a rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettite, Vazquez, and Joba they are very tough to beat with the lineup they put out there.
Questions: How will Pettite bounce back after the heavy workload of 2009 at the age of 38?
Who wins the job in Left field? Gardner, Winn, or Thames?

2. Boston Red Sox- Possibly the deepest roster in the MLB. Added John Lackey to an already phenomenal rotation. Mike Cameron solidifies Centerfield defensively and moves Ellsbury to left. Beltre now mans the hot corner, Marco Scutaro is at short and this is hands down the best defensive team in the MLB. With a defense like that behind Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Dice-k, and Bucholz, this is an extremely dangerous team.
Questions: Is Big Papi done?
Can Dice-k return to his 2008 dominance?

3. Philadelphia Phillies- The Phils were clearly the class of the National League before any additions were made. They added Placido Polanco, who is an upgrade over Pedro Feliz and added arguably the best pitcher in the game in Roy Halladay. Losing Cliff Lee will hurt but the Phillies also posses one of the best offenses in the MLB. They should have no problem taking the NL East.
Questions: Will Brad Lidge bounce back from a horrendous 2009?
Can Cole Hamels regain his 2008 form?
Will Ibanez rebound from a sub-par second half last season?

4. Tampa Bay Rays- Very young and talented roster throughout with a deep starting rotation of Shields, Garza, Niemann , Price, and the young Wade Davis. With the addition of Rafael Soriano to the bullpen, it should prevent the burnout the Rays’ bullpen experienced last season. With a deep young lineup containing Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, and Pat Burrell this team could compete for the division crown.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Questions: Can Pat Burrell rebound with his usual .250 30 and 100 season?
Who will win the battle for the catching position between Shoppach and Navarro?

5. Colorado Rockies – Extremely young and talented offensive lineup that could explode this season without Garret Atkins blocking the power hitting Ian Stewart and Chris Ianneta regaining the starting job behind the plate. Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, and Jorge De la rosa are a solid top 3 in the rotation and with Jeff Francis returning, this team has a very good chance to go deep into the playoffs.
Question: How will Jeff Francis fare after not pitching for more than a year?

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Phillies: Flashback; Flashforward

February 16th, 2010 by | 4 Comments | Filed in Baseball, General, Phillies

Phillies New Ace Roy Halladay

Looking back on the Philadelphia Phillies last season, I am absolutely impressed that the team won 93 games, especially considering the horrendous seasons from starter Cole Hamels and closer Brad Lidge, along with the long suspension and injury to mid-reliever J.C. Romero.

Add to that the mounting injuries to the bullpen, an ailing Raul Ibanez (secretly for half the season), an overplayed and underrested Chase Utley, a slumping/streaky/benched JimmyRollins, and an down year at the plate from a departed Pedro Feliz, the Phils really impressed me with their resiliency!

Just think if the closer combo of Lidge and Madson were effective - they would have won 100 games easily!  I am not blaming Madson, he was taken out of his bridge to Lidge role, and didn’t thrive as the stopper.

If not for the dissappearing act of Ryan Howard and the implosion of the bullpen in the World Series, the Phillies could have beaten the mighty, A-roid led Yankees.  Let’s be objective here.  Games 2, 3 and 4 of the World Series were all up for grabs and the Phils failed to nab at least one or two of them!  And the made-up-on-the-spot-by-the-umpires homerun that was gifted to A-roid was the turning point in the series.

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Phillies Ink Veteran Contreras

January 28th, 2010 by Johnny G | 8 Comments | Filed in Baseball, General

On Saturday the Phillies came to a 1 year agreement with veteran right hander Jose Contreras. Sources believe the deal is right around the $1 million range. After a brutal start to the season in the American League with the White Sox, he was traded to the Colorado Rockies and pitched extremely well. This has been a common trend for players coming from the AL to the NL, where they face much weaker competition. Overall he finished the season 6-13 with a 4.92 ERA and his overall flexibility is a great asset to any team. He can start or relieve and throws 6 pitches from 3 different arm slots, which makes him very deceptive when he drops down to a submarine style, three-quarters, or straight over the top. His splitter is also one of the best in the bigs.

This is the only move this entire off-season I have agreed with besides the Halladay deal, minus the Lee trade. At Charlie Manuel’s press conference on Wednesday he stated that Contreras would come out of the bullpen in all likelihood but in my opinion he would be of much greater value pitching every five days in the rotation. Right now if you leave Contreras in the pen, you are leaving the 5th rotation spot to a competition between Kyle Kendrick and a recovering Jamie Moyer. That is not exactly something I would be excited about, going into this season with expectations of another World Series run. Money will most likely play a factor, as Moyer is owed almost $7 million for this season. As I look at it, he’s going to get his money one way or the other, so why cost your team games being stubborn. He is 47 years old and was largely ineffective last season. He is coming off of three different major surgeries this off-season. Kyle Kendrick is essentially a one trick pony that the league has figured out to this point. In his rookie season he showed tremendous poise while getting by with just his sinker. The second time around the league that simply is not enough. Until he develops a legitimate second “out” pitch, he will struggle at this level. Jose Contreras was a great signing at a cheap price but now Amaro and Manuel have to use him in a way where he can be at his greatest value to the team, and that is in the rotation.

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As Arbitration Deadline Approaches, Three Phils Remained Unsigned

January 20th, 2010 by Johnny G | 12 Comments | Filed in Baseball, General, Phillies

Joe Blanton

As the arbitration deadline quickly approaches, the defending National League Champs still have three players to come to terms with. Carlos Ruiz is asking for $2.875 mill, while the Phillies are offering $1.85 million. Centerfielder Shane Victorino is asking for $5.8 million, while the Phillies are offering $4.75 million. Finally, we have righty Joe Blanton, with whom the Phillies remain the farthest apart with. Blanton is asking for $10.25 million, and the Phillies are offering $7.5 million.

CSNPhilly.com is also reporting that Victorino’s agents and the Phillies are in serious discussions over a multi-year deal that would essentially cover the rest of Victorino’s arbitration eligible seasons. Even without a multi-year deal, the Phillies have a good chance of winning the cases with Victorino and Ruiz, and are almost certain to win the case with Blanton. His request for $10.25 million is extremely inflated and is unlikely to be honored by the arbiters.

The best case scenario for both sides would be to come to deal before the February 1 deadline, as the arbitration process can be touchy. The club has to present a case to a panel of arbitrators as to why the player does NOT deserve the salary they are requesting and this can sometimes alienate a player. This was a big concern when Ryan Howard went to arbitration, and eventually won his case, receiving a record $10 million. Hopefully all three players can come to terms before the deadline and the team can begin to focus on the 2010 season.

News and Notes: Last week the Phillies made a huge splash in the free-agent market, signing former Phillie, Brandon Duckworth. In his time with the Phillies Duckworth appeared in 65 games, compiling an ERA of 4.87. Following the 2003 season, he was a part of the package traded to the Houston Astros for Billy Wagner. Coming off a 3-season stint with the Kansas City Royals, he received a minor league deal from the Phils and is unlikely to see any time in the big leagues. The Duck Pond will be back in Lehigh Valley.

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Mcgwire Comes Clean

January 14th, 2010 by Johnny G | 8 Comments | Filed in Baseball, General

Juiced

As we all know, Mark Mcgwire came clean several days ago about his steroid and PED use throughout the 90’s, including his record-breaking 1998 season. Some have applauded him for “voluntarily” coming forward with this information and others are left feeling a little suspicious. Here’s my take:

First thing is first, this was not by any means voluntary. Mcgwire was recently hired to be the hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals and going into this season every person in the Cardinals organization knew this situation was going to have to be addressed before the season started, or this would be a severe distraction to the team during the season. It just so happens, they decided to get this out of the way in January and clear the air.

Secondly, Mcgwire claimed that “steroids didn’t help his statistics” because he was only using the drugs for health purposes. The fact that for most of his career without steroids, he could rarely stay on the field, it is pretty evident that by taking steroids, it enabled him to remain healthy and stay on the field to accumulate more homeruns, RBIs, and hits. This would unfairly aide his case for the Hall of Fame and would unfairly give him advantages for more lucrative contracts than his fellow “clean” MLB players.

Another popular question asked by several media outlets is “If you were only using steroids for health purposes, why did you continue using them even while you were healthy?” If you were an athlete who struggled to stay healthy for the majority of his career and you suddenly began taking a drug that made your body feel stronger and healthier, would you ever stop taking the drug just because you weren’t injured anymore? I know I certainly wouldn’t. Why take the risk that coming off the drug will negatively affect your health again? Why fix it if it ain’t broken? These hypothetical questions are all assuming you made the decisions to use steroids in the first place, which I am not an advocate of.

In closing, no one knows specifically how much these steroids and PEDs are assisting players and how much strength and muscle mass they are gaining with the drugs. It is extremely hard to quantify how many homeruns Mcgwire would have hit in his career if he never touched a drug. Mcgwire says that he believes he would have broken the homerun record if he was off of steroids, and I can’t say I’m 100% sure he is wrong. There are a lot of question marks regarding the now “steroid era”, but one thing I do know, is that guys like Clemens, A-rod, Mcgwire and Bonds thoroughly dominated their era of baseball when steroids are believed to be so prevalent that no one is safe from accusation. That’s what the Hall of Fame is really all about, dominating your era. As much doubt as many will want to cast over the records of Bonds and Mcgwire, consider the fact that the pitchers they were facing to break these records, were most likely using some type of PED also. If I had a vote for the HOF, I would have to cast my vote for Mcgwire, A-rod, Clemens, and Bonds.

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