Like most, I believe that Worley will regress, but, unlike most, I will provide evidence to support this statement. To those who call him a “gamer” and to those he say he “bears down in tight situations”, I say “remember J.A Happ?” There are a lot of stunning similarities between JA Happ and Vance Worley, which would point to a Worley regression.
Let’s start with perhaps the most obvious, yet startling statistic; his K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio. His numbers in that category put him slightly above average, meaning his 2010 and 2011 numbers a bit fluke-ish. For background, let’s look at the average K/BB of a 3.oo ERA starting pitcher last season. To do this, I found the players with an ERA within ten points and of a 3.00 ERA last year and a minimum of 150 innings. I then found the average K/BB ratio among them. It turned out to be extremely close to Worley’s, but we also must account for there being fluky ERA’s in there as well. If you take out Jair Jurrjens, Jeremy Hellickson and Ricky Romero, all of whom have fluky ERA’s, you’ll find the average is 3.28. Worley’s was 0.7 away, which points to regression.
While the K/BB ratio is important, it’s not the only reason why I expect regression. Another reason I expect regression is the fact that he has a HR/FB% lower than league average, but a high FB%. This shows me that he got lucky when it came to the amount of HR’s he gave up, which, in turn shows me that next season he will give up more runs. But why, you may ask, does that give you this conclusion? Why can’t he just be a low homerun pitcher? And here’s the reason, his HR/9 in the minor leagues, excluding his stint at low A ball in 2008, is 87.25%. Considering that the competition level in the major leagues is a lot better than the minor leagues, common sense suggests that his HR/9 in the majors should be lower.
Finally, the Coup de grâce if you will, of why I expect Worley to regress, his LOB% (Left On Base Percentage).While it’s not abnormally high, it is still above average and there’s no reason for it. He had his lowest K/9 with men in scoring position, his second highest BB/9 (second to bases empty situations) and he gives up even less HR/FB than he does in normal situations (see my third paragraph, so as to see why this is bad).
I’m not saying that Worley will be bad, nor am I saying that he won’t be a solid number four starter, all I’m saying is that he’ll regress. His SIERA for last year is 3.72; I’ll take that out of a number four starter. As I like to remind people occasionally, he is only the number four starter. He’s not the fourth ace as some like to say, he’s a solid pitcher who had a fluky season. He’s not a bust and he’s not an ace, he’s Vance Worley, a number four starter.
Tags: Phillies, Vance Worley
no it means he won’t be succesful in the majors as we are finding out with happ
When Happ was had his good season, people all said he has heart, be bears down with runners on, and all this other nonsense. I don’t think you get to the big leagues unless you have heart, also i’m not going to sit here and act like i know if a guy even has heart or not. Never met him, never competed with him, never even been in the clubhouse. I think it’s all nonsense.
they said he had heart i don’t think so wrong happ, the stats say he has no heart, the clear picture said he has no heart when did he ever pitch inside, happ and worley 2 different animals,
wait, so now we can judge “heart” based off of a guy’s stats? If a guy doesn’t pitch inside, he has no heart? This is absolutely a ludicrous thought process.
it’s a ludicrous[i though he was a singer] process, but your baloney war stats are not come on young man you play the game if you don’t pitch inside the 2nd time around those batters adjust and boom there goes happs wins, but worley now has no fear of throwing inside which means he will survive the 2nd time around, it’s about having baslls is that better
What if he just doesn’t have the stuff to pitch inside? does that still mean he has no balls?
those stats mean nothing
I like the information that all these stats provide. It gives a different perspective on future and past performance but they do take away from the all around value of the players. Sort of like looking at just the accounting of a business and basing your opinion on just the bottom line. There is just more to it than that.
Nice piece for number one…I think there has to be a regression. The question is what will that be. If his era is 3.75 I don’t think that’s really a big regression more of a normal projection for him. The problem is if hr goes all ja happ on us. Time will tell.
Ricky,
I wrote what I’ve seen that he’ll regress, just because you don’t care for the stats doesn’t mean that it isn’t evidence. I hate to being pessimistic when it comes to the Phillies, but you’ll see this season.
My god what happened to my grammar in that comment. I apoligize for people offended by that mess.
have u seen
those stats mean nothing, it’s what happens on the field and what u seen to say he is going to regress
they mean nothing? will have to disagree there
disagree thats y u have this thing of yours but u being a catcher should know if a pitcher throws inside [worley]he has more of a chance at being succesful than a pitcher[happ] who would not throw inside, the article was great but those mean nothing, it’s what happens on the field
i agree a pitcher has a better shot to succeed if he throws inside but i don’t think that is the difference between happ and worley.
no then those phony stats again they don’t measure heart which worleys has and happ none of, and that sure is the difference when just can’t stand and lean over the the plate u sure can hit better