Why do I need to talk? Don't my actions speak louder than words?
I know it is WAY too early to be making bold predictions about for a team that we have no idea what they will do in the offseason, but barring no major institutional changes in the division, this is what the Eagles may be looking at. Keep in mind that this excersize is being completely based off of trends that the Eagles produce and no other team.
The Eagles opponents in 2012, outside of the NFC East, are as followed: the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Detroit Lions, the Atlanta Falcons, the New Orleans Saints, the Cincinatti Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens, the Carolina Panthers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cleveland Browns, and the Arizona Cardinals. The first six teams listed here were all in the playoffs in 2011. With the inclusion of the Super Bowl bound New York Giants, that makes eight games in sixteen against playoff caliber teams.
In the seven seasons since the Eagles themselves were in the Super Bowl, Andy Reid has finished with a .500 or better record against playoff bound teams just three times. As I’ve stated before, in other posts, for his career, Reid has a .362 winning percentage against playoff bound teams. That equates to roughy 3-5 against in the eight games against teams who reached the playoffs in 2011. If you’d rather take out the Giants’ two games, that equates to a 2-4 record. So depending on how you want to look at it, the Eagles currently stand at 3-5 or 2-4.
Next we move to the remaining four games against non-playoff teams from 2011. Carolina, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Arizona. Cleveland, Carolina, and Tampa Bay all finished with records under .500 while Arizona finished at an even 8-8. Trends show Reid finishing with an .809 winning percentage against teams that finish under .500. That equates to a 2-1 record. Against teams that finish .500 or better, Reid manages a .442 winning percentage. So we’ll leave that Arizona game as a floating win or loss.
The Eagles did extremely well within the NFC East in 2011, finishing 5-1. Generally, most teams don’t absolutely dominate their division. An easy range would be to finish anywhere from 2-4 to 4-2 within the division, again barring any ridiculous team changes. I’m of the mind set to say the Eagles will split with the Giants and Cowboys, and also sweeping the Redskins. That equates to a 4-2 divisional record.
Now let’s add up our wins and losses. I have the Eagles going 2-4 against the 2011 playoff teams, 2.5-1.5 against the four remaining out of division games (remember the “floating” win/loss), and 4-2 against the NFC East. That brings us to a total of 8.5-7.5, meaning that Eagles will most likely finish an even 8-8 again or 9-7. Does that kind of win total get you into the playoffs? It did in 2011. More importantly, what sort of circumstances are necessary for the Eagles and Reid to part ways in 2013?
Tags: 2012 Eagles prediction
